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  • JPMorgan Predicts $170K Bitcoin 🔮, Samourai Dev Gets Harsh DOJ Sentence 🔒, Robinhood Considers BTC Treasury Move 🏹

JPMorgan Predicts $170K Bitcoin 🔮, Samourai Dev Gets Harsh DOJ Sentence 🔒, Robinhood Considers BTC Treasury Move 🏹

Read issue #398 of the Bitcoin-only daily newsletter with the highest signal-to-noise ratio in the industry.

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Greetings Bitcoiner,

Welcome to Issue #398 of Bitcoin Breakdown, where we are excited to announce that you can now unlock a ridiculous 80% off all Premium Supporter tiers with our exclusive Early Black Friday offer!

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Now for today’s Top Stories:

  • 🔮 JPMorgan Sees Bitcoin Hitting $170K in 6-12 Months

  • 🔒 Samourai Wallet Dev Gets 5 Years for ‘Unlicensed Privacy’

  • 🏹 Robinhood Eyes Adding Bitcoin To Balance Sheet

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TOGETHER WITH UNCHAINED

You know the story of bitcoin’s market cycles... euphoric blow-offs, brutal crashes. Maybe not anymore. The Bitcoin Checkpoint takes a deep look at how the 2023–2025 cycle has rewritten market structure and why these changes could be permanent.

Inside, you’ll find analysis of record-low volatility, ETF flows absorbing billions monthly, and why long-term holders remain in control with $1.3T in unrealized profit. Plus, download now for automatic access to the event where James Check took a deep dive into the report himself.

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Nov 7, 2025

TODAY’S TOP STORIES

🔮 JPMorgan Sees Bitcoin Hitting $170K in 6-12 Months

JPMorgan analysts [bearishly] predict Bitcoin could reach [only] $170K within 6 to 12 months based on volatility-adjusted comparisons to gold. The bank believes deleveraging in perpetual futures is largely complete after record liquidations in October. With Bitcoin's current volatility ratio making it more attractive than gold on a risk-adjusted basis, analysts see significant upside potential ahead. The Block

🔒 Samourai Wallet Dev Gets 5 Years for ‘Unlicensed Privacy’

Keonne Rodriguez, co-creator of the Bitcoin privacy tool Samourai Wallet, has been sentenced to 5 years in prison and fined $250,000 for conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money transmitting business. Prosecutors painted him as courting criminal users, while his defense argued for Bitcoin’s legitimate need for privacy protections like CoinJoin and Ricochet. Despite the DOJ recently claiming it won’t target developers for code alone, Judge Cote handed down the maximum term, citing a lack of contrition. The Rage

🏹 Robinhood Eyes Adding Bitcoin To Balance Sheet

Robinhood is considering adding Bitcoin to its balance sheet while Bitcoin and crypto revenue skyrocketed 300% year-over-year to $268M in Q3. The trading platform beat earnings expectations with $1.27B total revenue and growing user base of 26.8M funded accounts. Leadership weighs signaling benefits to the Bitcoin and crypto community against capital allocation costs. Meanwhile, the company expands internationally through Bitstamp acquisition and diversifies into wealth management services. Cointelegraph

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POLL #398

How do you rate JPMorgan’s BTC price forecast of $170K in 6-12 months?

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PREVIOUS POLL RESULTS

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QUICK BITS

  • BlackRock & Fidelity led a rebound in spot Bitcoin ETFs inflows on Thursday, as traders shifted their focus to the 50-week EMA at about $100,000 following a 6 day outflow streak.

  • American Bitcoin Corp acquires 139 BTC, increasing total holdings to 4,004 BTC.

  • Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, who became one of the first US politicians to take his salary in BTC, reports 300% gains on his bitcoin paychecks since receiving pay at $30,000 per coin.

  • Bitcoin miners like CleanSpark and Core Scientific face regulatory uncertainty after Georgia's Public Service Commission election results as the narrowed GOP majority may revisit rate-freeze policies and large-load exemptions that currently benefit mining operations.

  • US appeals court rules that FBI is not liable for wiping a hard drive containing 3,443 BTC worth $345M, citing convicted identity thief Michael Prime's failure to disclose ownership during legal proceedings.

  • OpenSats announces the 13th wave of Nostr grants, funding 4 new projects including ZapTracker, Keydex, Bigbrotr, and Grasp, plus 5 renewals to advance creator tools, security, and decentralized collaboration.

  • Jack Dorsey's Block generates $1.97B from Bitcoin revenue in Q3 2024, marking its 2nd largest income stream despite year-over-year decline.

  • Orange Pill App rebrands to Club Orange after 3 years of connecting 19,000 Bitcoiners worldwide who built meetups, friendships, and businesses together.

  • Blockspace reveals that Russia has quietly become the world's 2nd largest bitcoin mining hub, controlling 15.51% of global hashrate behind only the United States.

  • Bitcoin treasuries experience the worst month on record as public companies add only 14,400 BTC worth $1.4B in October, marking a 63% drop from September amid collapsing premiums and market saturation.

  • Polish Bitcoin community sends 560 copies of 'The Bitcoin Standard' to Parliament members, aiming to educate lawmakers about Bitcoin fundamentals before they vote on restrictive legislation.

  • Lava, a bitcoin-collateral lender, faces social media allegations including involuntary fund transfers, centralized oracle use, forced DLC migration, and misleading interest rates.

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QUICK MEDIA

  • Frank Corva of Bitcoin Magazine reports on Samourai wallet developer Keonne Rodriguez receiving a 60-month prison sentence, 3 years supervision, and a $250K fine, while detailing statements made by Keonne and the judge in the courtroom (Nov 6 | 7:44 min watch). 

  • Erik Cason, author of Cryptosovereignty, in an appearance on the What Bitcoin Did podcast, argues that distinguishing between Bitcoin and crypto is essential as fiat currency's deterioration threatens to push society toward fascism or communism over the next 5 years (Nov 6 | 1:06 min watch). 

  • Donald Trump, speaking at the America Business Forum, states that crypto 'takes a lot of pressure off the dollar' while reemphasizing plans to make America the 'Bitcoin superpower' and 'crypto capital of the world' (Nov 6 | 1:28 min watch). 

  • Carla, creator of Bitcoin-based skits, reshares a video posted on November 5th paying tribute to the movie 'V For Vendetta' with a Bitcoin twist (Nov 5 | 2:06 min watch). 

  • My Favorite Thing About Bitcoin warns viewers that Zcash's recent price surge appears to be a manufactured pump and dump scheme orchestrated by insiders with conflicts of interest, rather than an organic comeback driven by privacy concerns (Oct 31 | 12:28 min watch). 

  • Adam Livingston, in a collaboration video with Swan Bitcoin, analyzes how Strategy's expansion of Bitcoin-backed credit instruments to European and Canadian bond markets could trigger a massive Bitcoin supply shock, as even small capital shifts from the $30.8 trillion bond market could dramatically increase Bitcoin demand and price (Nov 3 | 11:14 min watch).

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