Greetings Bitcoiner,

Welcome to Issue #433 of the daily Bitcoin Breakdown, where we have some excellent Opinion & Analysis pieces and Tools & Projects for you today!

But first, today’s Top Stories:

• ❄️ Saylor's Quantum Solution: Freeze Satoshi's Coins

• 📉 Macro Analyst Gromen Flips Bearish, Gets Rebuked

• 🇳🇴 Norway's Wealth Fund Backs Metaplanet's Bitcoin Strategy

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Dec 18, 2025

TODAY’S TOP STORIES

❄️ Saylor's Quantum Solution: Freeze Satoshi's Coins

Michael Saylor proposes that Bitcoin could defend against quantum computing threats through a hard fork that freezes vulnerable pay to public key outputs, including Satoshi Nakamoto's estimated one million BTC. The backwards-incompatible upgrade would reduce Bitcoin's circulating supply while boosting security, but sparked fierce backlash from the community. Critics slammed the idea as property confiscation, while developers warned of colossal risks. Quantum computers capable of breaking Bitcoin's cryptography remain years or decades away. Protos

📉 Macro Analyst Gromen Flips Bearish, Gets Rebuked

Prominent macro analyst Luke Gromen, once a Bitcoin bull, now warns BTC could drop to $40K in 2026 as macro conditions shift. He argues gold and equities better express the debasement trade thesis, citing Bitcoin's broken moving averages, failure to outpace gold, and growing quantum computing fears. Gromen’s reasoning however reveals fundamental misunderstandings: he's basing decisions on Twitter sentiment, misreading whale selling at $100K all-time highs as anomalous, ignoring the gold-to-Bitcoin rotation pattern, and overlooking that ETF adoption ramps up over years (gold ETFs ramped for 7 straight years). Cointelegraph

🇳🇴 Norway's Wealth Fund Backs Metaplanet's Bitcoin Strategy

Norway's massive $1.7T sovereign wealth fund has voted in favor of Metaplanet's bitcoin treasury plan ahead of the company's December 22nd meeting. The fund, holding a 0.3% stake, supported all five proposals designed to boost capital flexibility for bitcoin accumulation. Metaplanet plans to introduce perpetual preferred shares called MARS and MERCURY, offering various dividend structures to fund bitcoin purchases. The move signals growing institutional acceptance of corporate bitcoin treasury strategies beyond North America. CoinDesk

POLL #433

PREVIOUS POLL RESULTS

OPINION & ANALYSIS

• Swan, a Bitcoin-only financial services company, counters macro analyst Luke Gromen's $40K BTC price target and quantum risk concerns by arguing that timing Bitcoin is dangerous, as monetary systems monetize unpredictably through demand shocks rather than neat 4-year cycles (Dec 18 | 2 min read).

• Max Hillebrand, a privacy advocate and enthusiast, argues that smartphones running stock Android are surveillance devices controlled by corporations and governments rather than their owners, and explains how GrapheneOS transforms Pixel phones into genuinely private, user-owned devices through advanced security hardening and verifiable open-source code (Dec 17 | 10 min read).

• Charlie Spears of Blockspace Media analyzes how Bitcoin developers are criticizing the buggy BIP 110 activation client for its widespread test failures and consensus risks, drawing comparisons to the failed Segwit2x fork and questioning developer Dathon Ohm's technical capabilities to lead the controversial data-filtering softfork (Dec 16 | 5 min read).

• L0la L33tz of The Rage recaps the SEC's financial surveillance roundtable where Commissioner Hester Peirce and officials championed financial privacy rights, while several participants mistakenly framed privacy as a compliance product rather than a fundamental constitutional protection against government overreach (Dec 16 | 7 min read). 

• Michael Atwood, in an interview with Conor Chepenik of Bitcoin News, explains how his company Oshi transforms small businesses into modern bitcoin faucets by letting customers earn sats on everyday purchases without changing payment habits, bridging the gap between traditional commerce and Bitcoin adoption (Dec 15 | 9 min read).

• Lightning Network+, a Lightning Network liquidity coordination platform, explains how node operators can strategically move liquidity between channels through circular rebalances, fee adjustments, and peer management to maintain routing capacity and earn consistent fees without overspending on rebalancing costs (Dec 13 | 6 min read).

• DarthCoin, a Bitcoin educator and guide writer, provides a comprehensive step-by-step tutorial for beginners on using Zeus as a 'graduated wallet' that progresses from custodial Cashu wallets to Embedded nodes with Lightning channels to LSPs to eventually running advanced remote nodes, emphasizing proper backup practices and liquidity management throughout (Dec 15 | 13 min read).

• Jeff Park, CIO at ProCap BTC, argues that Bitcoin's price stagnation stems from long-term holders selling calls against their positions, creating negative delta and suppressing volatility, while IBIT ETF options buyers provide the opposite effect but remain insufficient to overcome this structural headwind (Dec 13 | 7 min read).

• Valentin Rousseau of Hashlabs projects Bitcoin's network hashrate could reach 3,487 EH by 2028 as miners energize 33-45 GW capacity with next-generation ASICs, while warning that approaching efficiency limits and halving pressures may end mining's traditional cyclical profitability model (Dec 12 | 3 min read).

• Justin Giudici of Telos argues that modern society has unintentionally created a comprehensive surveillance system through KYC requirements and data collection, and advocates for a shift to a 'DKYC Era' using zero-knowledge proofs to enable digital transactions without surrendering personal information (Dec 12 | 4 min read).

• Steve Myers, contributor to Bitcoin Development Kit, in an interview with Conor Chepenik of Bitcoin News, explains how BDK, a Rust-based library, simplifies cross-platform wallet creation by handling key management, transaction building, and blockchain syncing, enabling developers to build safer bitcoin applications without reinventing core infrastructure (Dec 17 | 5 min read).

• Felix Xu, co-founder and CEO of Arpa Network and Bella Protocol, argues that zero-knowledge cryptography offers a crucial defense against quantum computing threats to Bitcoin and crypto's asset base, urging immediate implementation of quantum-resistant solutions before 'Q Day' renders current encryption vulnerable (Dec 17 | 5 min read).

• Haley Berkoe of Spiral reports that its Bitcoin Merchant Community initiative has distributed over 800 plushies through Local Champions across the US in its first month, aiming to help small businesses eliminate 3% credit card fees by accepting bitcoin payments (Dec 16 | 4 min read).

• Derek Ross, a three-year Nostr contributor and creator of multiple apps and community initiatives for the protocol, announces that he is leaving his 16-year career to become full-time Developer Relations at Soapbox starting January 2026, focusing on building decentralized social technology and freedom tech tools (Dec 15 | 3 min read).

• Hunter Rogers, co-founder of Terahash, argues that Bitcoin's long-term viability depends on transforming dormant capital into productive economic activity through BTCFi protocols that generate yield while supporting network security, rather than relying solely on speculative price appreciation (Dec 15 | 4 min read).

• Max Hillebrand also argues that centralized app stores like Apple's and Google's function as digital checkpoints requiring identity verification and banking access, while Zapstore on Nostr offers a permissionless alternative using cryptographic signatures and Bitcoin payments to enable truly free software distribution (Dec 15 | 7 min read).

• 028559d218, a Bitcoin advocate and Stacker News contributor, argues that Bitcoin fundamentally represents digital property and collateral rather than currency, offering 8B people access to scarce, verifiable, energy-backed capital that serves as truth infrastructure in an AI-saturated internet while competing for the same energy resources as artificial intelligence (Dec 14 | 9 min read).

TOOLS & PROJECTS

• New on Geyser: BitNGN, a Lightning Network-powered remittance platform, enables instant Bitcoin-to-Naira transfers using Breez SDK's non-custodial wallet technology, bypassing traditional banking rails with low-cost cross-border payments for Nigerian users.

• New on Geyser: Discourse Breez Tipping integrates Breez SDK Liquid WASM to enable client-side, self-custodial Lightning payments through a browser-based tipping plugin for Discourse forums without server custody.

• BitGo partners with Voltage to offer institutional clients Lightning Network payments directly from qualified custody, eliminating node management while maintaining security standards as Lightning capacity hits all-time highs.

• Nostr Compass, a new weekly technical newsletter for the Nostr protocol ecosystem, launches with coverage of NIP proposals, client updates, relay developments, and best practices for builders.

• PearPass, an open-source peer-to-peer password manager built on the Pears protocol and supported by Tether, offers end-to-end encryption with local device storage, cross-platform support, and free access without centralized servers vulnerable to breaches.

• MetaMask launches native Bitcoin support with SegWit addresses, enabling users to buy, transfer, and swap BTC, using the Bitcoin Development Kit.

• Club Orange reveals that Apple and Google repeatedly pressured the bitcoin social app to remove Nostr login functionality, while celebrating one year since implementing Nostr login on the app.

• XChat, a privacy-focused messaging app built using the MLS protocol over Nostr, surpasses 100K downloads and announces upcoming audio/video calls for groups, Marmot protocol compatibility, and website redesign.

• Blockstream discloses a vulnerability in Jade hardware wallet firmware versions 1.0.24-1.0.36 and urges users to upgrade to version 1.0.38.

• Bitcoin Medellin 2026, a conference in Colombia's City of Eternal Spring, brings together industry leaders including venture capitalist Jeff Booth, Wall Street veteran Oliver Velez, and Bitcoin Beach founder Mike Peterson for two days of talks on mining, finance, and investment strategy on January 16-17.

• Moonshot, a beta platform connecting project funders with builders on Nostr, enables idea publication without wallets or KYC, with secure fund management through Angor's reclaim protection system.

• Fiatjaf launches Nostr Devtools browser extension providing real-time relay monitoring, event tracking, and subscription filtering capabilities for developers building on the decentralized social network.

• BBQr enables seamless encoding of Partially Signed Bitcoin Transactions, raw Bitcoin transactions, and various data types through simple drag-and-drop or paste functionality supporting Base64 and HEX formats.

• Chaincode Labs' Bitcoin Open Source Software Challenge 2026 invites developers of all levels to apply by Dec 31, 2025, for a rigorous, free program starting Jan 12 requiring 10+ hours weekly commitment.

• Pool_checkr, an open-source Bitcoin mining tool by developer skot, parses Stratum mining.notify messages to extract block height, previous block hash, and coinbase transaction data with a retro System 6 interface.

• 256D, a beta UPI Lightning bridge service, enables users to pay Indian UPI merchants using Lightning Network wallets by automatically converting Lightning payments into INR transfers within 10 seconds.

• Micah Warren, mathematician and author of 'Bitcoin: A Game-Theoretic Analysis,' seeks community input on topics for the textbook's second edition, inviting suggestions via comments or email.

• Bitcoin Products by TFTC curates 153+ battle-tested services in the Bitcoin ecosystem across 25+ categories.

• Bitchill Season 2, a 10-day Bitcoin retreat in Próspera, Honduras from January 18-28, 2026, offers diving, workshops, and networking in the Bitcoin-friendly jurisdiction.

• Satoshi's Auction House, a trustless Bitcoin auction platform using HOLD invoices for conditional payment logic and trust-minimized escrow, enables sellers to receive payments without taking custody of user funds.

• Bitcoin Mining ROI Simulator, an open-source Python tool, uses Monte Carlo simulations to model difficulty growth and price projections, helping miners evaluate rig profitability under realistic uncertainty scenarios.

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