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  • Fiat Alarm Rings 🚨, TradFi Banks Panic 😨, Chain Anal Fail 💩

Fiat Alarm Rings 🚨, TradFi Banks Panic 😨, Chain Anal Fail 💩

Read and listen to issue #456 of the Bitcoin-only daily newsletter with the highest signal-to-noise ratio in the industry.

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Greetings Bitcoiner,

Welcome to Issue #456 of Bitcoin Breakdown, where we have some excellent Opinion & Analysis pieces and Tools & Projects for you today!

But first, today’s Top Stories:

  • 🧱 Gold Prints Nearly Bitcoin’s Market Cap Overnight

  • 🏦 Banks Panic Over Stablecoin Yields At White House Summit

  • 🧮 Chainalysis Quietly Admits Massive North Korea Attribution Error

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TODAY’S TOP STORIES

🧱 Gold Prints Nearly Bitcoin’s Market Cap Overnight

Gold ripped 4.4% in 24 hours, topping $5,500 per ounce and adding about 1.5T to its market cap, nearly matching bitcoin’s roughly 1.75T, as the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged. Chair Jerome Powell dismissed the rally as a non-event, while Bitcoin consolidated near $89,000 despite institutional surveys calling it undervalued.

Why it matters: The fiat alarm is ringing, but the fire exit is crowded. Gold is the legacy hedge for paper money collapse; Bitcoin is the replacement architecture waiting for the inevitable liquidity spillover when the digital gold narrative catches up to reality. Buckle your seatbelts. Read more→

🏦 Banks Panic Over Stablecoin Yields At White House Summit

The White House is convening banking executives and crypto firms to broker a deal on the stalled Clarity Act, with the fight centering on stablecoin yields. Legacy banks are reportedly lobbying to ban interest-bearing dollar tokens, fearing that 5% on-chain yields will drain their 0.01% deposit base.

Why it matters: Wall Street is trying to legislate its survival because it cannot compete with software that passes T-Bill yields directly to users. While stablecoins are still fiat, they train users to exit the banking system — a one-way street that ultimately leads to self-custody and Bitcoin. Read more→

🧮 Chainalysis Quietly Admits Massive North Korea Attribution Error

L0laL33tz of The Rage points out that blockchain surveillance firm Chainalysis walked back a major claim, admitting that nearly half the hacked funds it previously attributed to North Korea were unrelated. The correction came 'upon further investigation' after the data had already been used to shape narratives around illicit finance.

Why it matters: 'Crypto forensics' is often just expensive guesswork sold to governments to justify control. When these black boxes fail, innocent users get flagged and privacy tools get banned, proving why true fungibility and privacy at the protocol level are non-negotiable. Read more→

Jan 29, 2026

POLL #456

With gold at $5,500/oz, what is the ‘fair value’ of BTC right now?

  • ~$89,000 (Current)
  • $150,000+
  • $500,000+
  • 1 BTC = 1 BTC

Login or Subscribe to participate

PREVIOUS POLL RESULTS

INSIGHTS & ANALYSIS

  • SimpleStacker, an author of guides and reviews on Stacker News, argues that a Bitcoin standard would reduce low-value animal experimentation by constraining government spending and forcing research funding toward only the highest-valued projects with commensurate ethical justification (Jan 29 | 6 min read).

  • Will Reeves, Founder and CEO of Fold, announces major 2026 changes for his company, eliminating subscription fees, launching a no-annual-fee credit card earning up to 4% back in bitcoin, and positioning themselves to serve American families building long-term savings as generational wealth shifts toward bitcoin adoption (Jan 27 | 8 min read).

  • Bitcoin Ekasi, a South African grassroots Bitcoin adoption initiative, argues that while African Bitcoin adoption needs more scalable 'factories' than symbolic 'churches,' Bitcoin Circular Economies serve as crucial inspiration hubs for builders and must evolve toward self-sustainability by innovating ways for communities to earn, spend and save BTC (Jan 27 | 3 min read).

  • Daniel Lacalle, professor of global economy at IE Business School in Madrid, argues that central banks are shifting reserves from developed nations' sovereign debt into gold rather than alternative fiat currencies, reflecting a broader loss of confidence in fiscal sustainability and monetary policy across all major economies including the dollar, euro, and yen (Jan 26 | 6 min read).

  • Jeff Booth, author of 'The Price of Tomorrow' and General Partner at Ego Death Capital, argues that technology's natural deflationary force conflicts with fiat monetary systems requiring inflation, while Bitcoin offers a sound money alternative aligned with technological abundance and falling prices (Jan 26 | 2 min read).

  • Jeff Booth also argues that AI's exponential growth exposes how social media traps humanity in attention-extracting cycles, prompting him to deploy an AI agent for 𝕏 while focusing on decentralized protocols like Nostr and Bitcoin for genuine human connection (Jan 26 | 4 min read).

  • Liam 'Akiba' Wright, Editor-In-Chief at CryptoSlate, writes that Bitcoin's path to global reserve currency primacy faces structural barriers from the dollar's $13T reserve dominance, placing the earliest realistic window around 2046 despite growing institutional adoption through ETPs and tokenized assets (Jan 23 | 5 min read).

  • Rob Hamilton, CEO of AncorWatch, after attending the Nashville Energy & Mining Summit 2026, observes that Bitcoin miners are facing increasing competition from AI infrastructure for silicon supply and energy resources, but speculates that they can leverage their power expertise to bridge into HPC by using mining as revenue during longer AI buildouts (Jan 23 | 6 min read).

  • Glen Cameron, Global Head of Onramp Institutional, analyzes how Bitcoin's price cycles are increasingly driven by global liquidity conditions (M2 money supply), dollar strength, and real interest rates rather than the traditional four-year halving schedule, with macro regimes now dominating returns over multi-quarter horizons (Jan 22 | 22 min read).

  • Dani Villalba Herrera of Unchained demystifies Bitcoin cryptography by quantifying how entropy, SHA-256 hashing, elliptic curve signatures, and proof of work create mathematically unbreakable security exceeding NIST standards, making 12-word seed phrases and BTC addresses resistant to any conceivable attack (Jan 9 | 14 min read).

  • ICYMI: René Pickhardt, a Lightning Network researcher and co-author of 'Mastering the Lightning Network', makes a case for Ark to be reconsidered as channel factory infrastructure for Lightning rather than a standalone payment system, enabling efficient on-chain compression of liquidity reconfiguration to address payment feasibility constraints that routing algorithms alone cannot solve (Dec 31 2025 | 7 min read).

  • Cryptography researchers at Distributed Lab introduce BLISK, a multisignature scheme that embeds Boolean logic circuits into public keys, enabling complex organizational approval policies like 'CEO OR (CFO AND 2 board members)' without requiring threshold signatures or smart contracts (Jan 26 | 5 min read).

  • Bubb1es, in a post on Delving Bitcoin, explores methods for safely disposing of dust attack UTXOs by creating minimal transactions with OP_RETURN outputs that consume entire amounts as fees, while acknowledging risks including wallet fingerprinting and user confusion in multisig setups (Jan 25 | 2 min read).

  • Andrea Carnimeo of Blockdyor reviews AtlasPool (dot) io, a globally deployed solo Bitcoin mining pool that uses BGP Anycast technology to automatically route miners to the closest of seven worldwide endpoints, reducing latency and rejected shares for a 1.5% fee (Jan 25 | 13 min read).

  • Francisco Rodrigues, a CoinDesk reporter, argues that bitcoin fails as a safe-haven versus gold during geopolitical stress because investors treat BTC like an ATM to raise cash, while gold absorbs risk, leaving bitcoin better for longer term monetary uncertainty (Jan 25 | 3 min read).

  • Chainalysis, a blockchain analytics firm, claims that the UK is pioneering a global blueprint against crypto-enabled fraud through AI-powered prevention tools, international collaboration via Project WINTERPROOF, and new regulations requiring financial institutions to proactively stop scams that cost victims $14B globally in 2025 (Jan 22 | 8 min read).

  • Kirubai of Lightning News details how visualization tools like mempool dot space, Amboss, 1ML, ThunderHub, RTL, and Lightning Terminal transform the Lightning Network from an abstract concept into measurable insights for builders, node operators, and Bitcoin enthusiasts exploring network health, liquidity, and routing performance (Jan 20 | 4 min read).

TOOLS & PROJECTS

  • New on Geyser: Bitcoin for Aliyense, a Zambian grassroots initiative, empowers women and youth through Bitcoin education in rural and urban communities, teaching financial literacy, self-custody, and economic inclusion via workshops and meetups.

  • New on Geyser: Bitcoin House Malaysia, a community-funded education center and hacker hub in Kuala Lumpur, launches crowdfunding campaign to provide free Bitcoin education, technical workshops, and permanent co-working space for Southeast Asia.

  • Club Orange, a social app for Bitcoiners, launches Payment Links to simplify Lightning payments by allowing users to share QR-scannable links instead of traditional invoices, offering to pay the first 100 users up to 1,000 sats each.

  • Heatbit unveils Maxi Pro, a 60 TH/s Bitcoin mining space heater with HEPA air purification that earns approximately $450 per season while heating up to 400 sq ft, priced at $1,499 for preorder.

  • Cashu LoRa Gateway enables offline Bitcoin ecash transactions over encrypted Meshtastic mesh networks, allowing censorship-resistant payments in remote areas without internet connectivity through LoRa radio technology.

  • Bithypha, a Bitcoin block explorer and analytics platform, launches on-chain taint path visualization feature enabling users to trace and verify transaction connections between addresses, clusters, and labeled entities on the Bitcoin network.

  • Electrum Wallet, a popular open-source Bitcoin wallet, releases version 4.7.0 with submarine payments enabling onchain transactions from lightning balances, biometric authentication on Android, and LNURL-Withdraw support for voucher redemption.

  • Second, a company building an implementation of the Ark protocol, releases bark-0.1.0-beta.6 featuring hArk, a protocol that eliminates synchronous coordination requirements, enables asynchronous VTXO claims, improves wallet security with hardened key derivations, and restores offboard functionality with dynamic fee estimation.

  • Camp Nakamoto, a Bitcoin-focused family retreat on a private New Hampshire island, opens ticket sales for its June 18-21, 2026 event featuring outdoor activities, wellness programs, and live music performances.

  • Peach Bitcoin, a peer-to-peer Bitcoin marketplace, launches an open-source BTCPay Server plugin enabling merchants to sell bitcoin directly from self-hosted wallets at premium rates without KYC, completing the circular economy loop for businesses accepting Bitcoin payments.

  • Blockstream's desktop app now enables direct BTC purchases with real-time quote comparison, integrated price charts, unified Bitcoin and Liquid Network asset views, rebuilt send/receive flows, centralized security controls, and enhanced navigation for streamlined self-custody.

  • Satsfire is a Monte Carlo retirement simulator that integrates bitcoin with traditional index funds, addressing the gap between bitcoin-only and stock-focused FIRE planning tools.

  • ZSP, a CLI tool by Zapstore, enables developers to publish Android apps to Nostr relays with APK acquisition from multiple sources, metadata enrichment, Blossom uploads, and flexible signing via private keys, NIP-46 bunkers, or browser extensions.

  • Blossy, a developer tool for creating custom Blossom servers, simplifies implementation of features like ecash support and Web of Trust gating with an intuitive API designed for rapid deployment.

  • Fedimint, an open-source Chaumian ecash protocol for Bitcoin, releases version 0.10.0 named 'Lighthouse' with self-hosted gateway support via Iroh networking, simplified Lightning channel management, on-chain wallet functionality, and enhanced mobile integration for federated ecash systems.

  • i-payout, a payment platform, partners with Neutron to enable instant stablecoin and Lightning Network payouts, connecting businesses to 500M+ users across 20+ currencies with near-instant settlement capabilities up to 1M TPS.

  • Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 346 proposes OP_TXHASH, a new Bitcoin tapscript opcode enabling generalized transaction introspection for flexible covenant designs, multi-user protocols, and signature hash construction including SIGHASH_ANYPREVOUT emulation.

  • Seed Keys, a physical Bitcoin backup device maker, publishes an educational guide clarifies the critical distinction between Bitcoin private keys and seed phrases, explaining how seed phrases serve as the master backup for self-custody wallets and represent the single point of failure in securing your BTC.

  • Anil Patel, author of 'The Treasury of Michael Saylor', launches a site that logs multiple 'Strategy has failed' calls since 2020 and charts MSTR price versus bearish predictions.

  • Flint, a curated community of vibecoders backed by Spiral at Block, unites builders experimenting with AI, Bitcoin, and emerging tech to ship quarterly projects and share feedback.

  • Own Your Posts, a Nostr-based content migration feature vibecoded by Paul Keating of Primal, finds your public posts from Instagram, TikTok, Twitter, or RSS Feeds so you can keep selected media permanently and own it on Nostr.

  • B Market 21, Europe's Bitcoin-native food marketplace, connects bitcoiners with premium artisan products from local producers including craft beer, wine, organic honey, grass-fed beef, and natural skincare - all payable in BTC.

  • Machankura, an app for offline Bitcoin usage in Africa, announces that BitZed's services are now fully available to Zambian users via the 3848333# USSD code.

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