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Greetings Bitcoiner,
Welcome to Issue #463 of Bitcoin Breakdown, where we’re bringing you your end-of-week Bitcoin Digest featuring all the need-to-know Quick Bits snippets and Quick Media.
But first, today’s Top Stories:
🕳️ Mystery Fund Blowup Sparks Bitcoin's Worst Week Since FTX
🏦 JPMorgan Calculates $266K Bitcoin While Gold Melts Up
⚡ Lightning Handles $1M Transfer in 0.43 Seconds
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🕳️ Mystery Fund Blowup Sparks Bitcoin's Worst Week Since FTX
Bitcoin crashed nearly 30% in seven days to $60,000, triggering $2.7B in liquidations and sending the fear and greed index to 9 — the lowest since Terra imploded. Traders suspect a large Asia-based non-crypto fund got wrecked unwinding leveraged yen carry trades and IBIT options, with BlackRock's ETF posting a record $10.7B volume day.
Why it matters: When TradFi leverage meets Bitcoin, the blowups are spectacular but the network keeps producing blocks. Weak hands exit, conviction stacks. Read more→
🏦 JPMorgan Calculates $266K Bitcoin While Gold Melts Up
JPMorgan analysts argue Bitcoin's investment case against gold has strengthened despite the crash. Gold surged 60% in 2025 with spiking volatility, while Bitcoin's risk profile has improved. The bank calculates a volatility-adjusted price of $266,000 if BTC matched gold's private investment market cap — 'unrealistic this year' but revealing long-term upside.
Why it matters: The same banks that called Bitcoin worthless now run the numbers showing massive undervaluation. Translation: they want your sats cheaper before they stack. Read more→
⚡ Lightning Handles $1M Transfer in 0.43 Seconds
Secure Digital Markets sent $1 million to Kraken over the Lightning Network on Jan. 28 — the largest publicly reported Lightning payment ever. The transfer cleared in 0.43 seconds via Voltage infrastructure, dwarfing the previous record of roughly $140,000. Public Lightning capacity recently also hit an all-time high above 5,600 BTC.
Why it matters: Instant, permissionless, seven-figure settlement between regulated counterparties with minimal fees. The 'Bitcoin doesn't scale' crowd just got receipts. Read more→
Poll #463: Who is most to blame for the 30% dip in Bitcoin to $60k?
Gloria Zhao, Bitcoin Core's first female maintainer and mempool policy specialist, revokes her PGP key for signing Bitcoin Core releases after four years of development and contributions.
River CEO Alexander Leishman reports that trading volumes on their platform doubled in 2025 amid surging demand from individuals and businesses, while expressing confidence that Bitcoin's strong fundamentals will outlast the current market correction.
Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart notes that spot Bitcoin ETF holders show resilience with only $7B in outflows from $62B peak, despite BTC dropping 42% from highs and facing first-ever three consecutive months of withdrawals.
Strategy CEO Phong Le says bitcoin would need to plunge to $8,000 and stay there for years to threaten the company's debt obligations, despite reporting $12.6B in unrealized losses in Q4.
Bitcoin's Coinbase Premium Gap drops to lowest level since December 2024, signaling intensified institutional selling pressure as US spot ETFs offload 10.6K BTC year-to-date.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index hits 9/100, its lowest since June 2022, after billions of dollars worth of liquidations.
Binance buys another $235M worth of Bitcoin for its 'SAFU' fund, having already bought $200M recently for the same purpose.
PlanB, the pseudonymous analyst behind the stock-to-flow model, outlines BTC bear market scenarios ranging from an 80% crash to $25K to a potential bottom already forming near $70K.
Bitcoin's current drawdown near 4% of gold's market cap may offer a final entry before US policy shifts elevate Bitcoin to sovereign asset status, according to a Bernstein analyst.
Utexo, a protocol enabling native USDT transactions on Bitcoin via Lightning Network and RGB integration, joins CTDG Dev Hub to advance stablecoin transfers without bridging or wrapping intermediaries.
Virginia's Senate committee approves legislation to create a state-managed bitcoin reserve fund, joining South Dakota, Rhode Island, and New Hampshire in exploring strategic Bitcoin investments.
OpenSats, a nonprofit funding open-source Bitcoin development, announces 17 grants in its 16th wave supporting formal verification, ecash infrastructure, developer tooling, self-custodial wallets, mining software, and education programs across the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Summer of Bitcoin, a global remote program training university students in Bitcoin open source development, accepts applications until February 15 for its 2026 cohort offering $6,600 BTC stipends and mentorship.
Gemini, the Bitcoin and crypto exchange founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, slashes 200 jobs and exits UK, EU, and Australia markets amid bitcoin's plunge this year and major declines in stock prices since its September 2025 IPO.
Bitcoin's network hashrate surpasses 1 zetahash per second while miner profitability hits historic lows post-halving, with transaction fees below 1% of rewards.
QCP Capital's Darius Sit, co-founder of the Singapore trading desk with over $60B in annual volume, says bitcoin's underperformance versus gold reflects liquidity dynamics and October's deleveraging crisis rather than a breakdown of its inflation-hedge thesis.
Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary, admits that US weaponized the dollar against Iran by creating a currency shortage that triggered hyperinflation, bank runs, and nationwide protests, with the rial plummeting against the dollar and bitcoin prices surging (Feb 6 | 0:42 min watch).
Nick O'Neill, a prominent degenerate influencer, posts a rare, loud and uncharacteristically coherent analysis of what's going on in the Bitcoin and crypto market right now (Feb 5 | 1:37 min watch).
Bruce Fenton of the Satoshi Roundtable and former Executive Director of The Bitcoin Foundation explains why Epstein's donations to MIT Media Lab could not have compromised Bitcoin development, emphasizing that Bitcoin's decentralized node and miner structure prevents any single entity from controlling code changes (Feb 3 | 3:28 min watch).
James Lavish, board member at Strive, in an interview with Danny Knowles of 'What Bitcoin Did', argues that Bitcoin is experiencing 'information arbitrage' as markets fail to grasp its unique properties as the ultimate store of value and debasement hedge, predicting BTC will surpass $1M in the early 2030s (Feb 6 | 2:34 min watch).
Jesse Shrader of Amboss highlights how his company's new service RailsX unlocks instant 24/7 settlement for the $9.5T daily FX market through Lightning-native, self-custody P2P trading capabilities that eliminate weekend downtime (Feb 3 | 2:21 min watch).
River, a Bitcoin-only exchange, publishes an explainer video that details the origins of Bitcoin's value compared to that of fiat money and lists the necessary properties that are required for a form of money to perform its core monetary functions effectively (Feb 4 | 2:38 min watch).
Bitcoin Katie warns that retail investors borrowing against BTC face eight critical disadvantages versus the ultra-wealthy including higher interest rates, volatile collateral, limited liquidity buffers, and automated liquidations that can destroy years of savings (Jan 25 | 18:53 min watch).
