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Greetings Bitcoiner,
Welcome to Issue #472 of Bitcoin Breakdown, where every Tuesday and Thursday, we bring you the latest must-read Bitcoin thought leadership articles and the newest tools and projects you should know about.
But first, today’s Top Stories:
🌍 Dalio Declares World Order Dead, Bitcoiners See Their Moment
💵 Record Dollar Bearishness Hits 14-Year High
🔐 Scammers Send Physical Letters to Steal Seed Phrases
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🌍 Dalio Declares World Order Dead, Bitcoiners See Their Moment
Ray Dalio warned in a recent 𝕏 post that the post-WWII rules-based order has "officially broken down," with the world entering a "law of the jungle" phase where great powers face a persistent prisoner's dilemma across trade, technology, and military flashpoints. His framework highlights how states weaponize asset freezes, capital bans, and money printing as standard tools -- with global broad money surging from $26 trillion in 2000 to $142 trillion in 2025.
Why it matters: This the most structurally bullish setup for hard assets in 80 years. Every sanction, every freeze, every round of debasement sharpens the case for apolitical, borderless money -- and Bitcoin is the only monetary asset that cannot be frozen, diluted, or confiscated by a committee. Dalio may prefer gold, but the macro narrative he just handed Bitcoin bulls is worth more than his endorsement. Read more→
Meanwhile...
💵 Record Dollar Bearishness Hits 14-Year High
Bank of America's February survey shows fund managers' dollar positioning at its most negative since early 2012, with net short exposure at record levels. The bearishness is driven by U.S. labor market fears and expectations of Fed rate cuts. Historically, a weaker dollar has supported risk assets -- but BTC's 90-day correlation with the DXY recently flipped to a positive 0.60, complicating the traditional playbook.
Why it matters: Correlation regimes come and go. What does not change is the structural trajectory of fiat currencies issued by governments running permanent deficits. Record dollar shorts are not a quirky data point -- they are the market slowly confessing what Bitcoiners have known for years: even the world's reserve currency is being managed into irrelevance. The only question is whether you position yourself ahead of the crowd or behind it. Read more→
Shifting to security...
🔐 Scammers Send Physical Letters to Steal Seed Phrases
Threat actors are mailing fake letters to Trezor and Ledger hardware wallet users, complete with official branding, QR codes, and deadlines demanding recipients complete a mandatory "Authentication Check." The letters direct users to phishing sites that harvest recovery seed phrases. Past data breaches at both companies -- Ledger in 2020 and Trezor in 2024 -- likely provided the mailing addresses.
Why it matters: Your seed phrase is the master key to your Bitcoin. No legitimate company will ever ask for it through any channel -- letter, email, or website. This attack is a reminder that self-custody demands operational security, not just a hardware wallet. Never share seed phrases. Verify through official channels. Bookmark legitimate URLs. And treat every unsolicited request as hostile until proven otherwise. Don't trust, verify -- it is not a slogan, it is a survival protocol. Read more→
Poll #472: Dalio just described exactly why Bitcoin exists — then recommended gold. What's going on?
Eduardo Prospero of Blink Wallet explores how zaps (Lightning Network microtransactions on Nostr, Stacker News, and Fountain) are building a global, censorship-resistant circular economy through the Value4Value model, even as dollar amounts remain modest (Feb 16 | 7 min read).
Orangesurf of mempool research presents data-driven analysis showing that the overwhelming majority of Bitcoin OP_RETURN transactions remain standard, nonstandard usage has not increased since Core v30's release, and recent OP_RETURN activity is almost entirely driven by the Runes protocol (Feb 16 | 5 min read).
Paradigm VC researchers argue that Bitcoin mining stabilizes electrical grids by consuming cheap off-peak renewable energy that would otherwise be wasted, countering misconceptions from Congress and media that conflate it with energy-intensive AI data centers (Feb 16 | 9 min read).
Sasha Hodder, a lawyer in the Bitcoin industry, argues that Bitcoin node operators face no criminal liability for illicit content embedded in blockchain data, as federal law requires knowledge and intent to possess CSAM, which automated node validation cannot satisfy under established court precedents (Feb 16 | 2 min read).
BitcoinForKenya, a Bitcoin advocate in East Africa, shares how Mombasa driver George Kaleo Mbindu became Kenya's first Bitcoin Taxi operator by accepting Lightning payments in sats, demonstrating how Bitcoin adoption spreads through practical utility in developing economies rather than speculation (Feb 15 | 4 min read).
Nunchuk, a Bitcoin custody solutions provider, clarifies that OP_IF scripts can be more cost-efficient than Taproot branches for certain wallets and argues that Miniscript represents the critical evolution of Bitcoin self-custody from singlesig to multisig to decaying multisig with layered security (Feb 15 | 3 min read).
Jordan and Wyatt of the Bitcoin for Financial Services newsletter interview Voltage VP Bobby Shell, highlighting that Lightning Network is Bitcoin's enterprise adoption catalyst with Cash App's 9.7% routing yield, 1B potential global users, privacy features, and upcoming stablecoin integrations (Feb 13 | 5 min read).
Arch Lending, a Bitcoin custody and lending firm, explores how open-source AI agent platform OpenClaw shares Bitcoin's permissionless DNA and argues their convergence via Lightning Network micropayments strengthens Bitcoin's long-term utility and network effects (Feb 13 | 4 min read).
The Bitkey Team, the group behind Block's multisig bitcoin hardware wallet, illustrates how Bitkey's seedless design thwarts spear phishing attacks by ensuring users simply cannot hand over a recovery phrase they never had (Feb 13 | 4 min read).
Plebeian Market, a Bitcoin-native marketplace built on Nostr, highlights two sovereign sellers offering coffee and art on its platform while announcing technical improvements to image handling and emphasizing how its NIP-99 protocol enables creators to bypass traditional platform fees, KYC requirements, and censorship through direct peer-to-peer commerce (Feb 13 | 2 min read).
Juan Galt of Bitcoin Magazine profiles Silent Link, a Bitcoin-native eSIM provider founded during COVID lockdowns, explaining how the privacy-focused company eliminates SIM-swap risks and automates international roaming while accepting only BTC payments and collecting zero personal user data (Feb 13 | 4 min read).
Erik De Smedt, Contributor to Core Lightning, Greenlight, and LSPS, explains how hArk updates the Ark protocol by using hash-locks instead of connectors for forfeits, enabling mobile-friendly delegated refreshes where cosigners can pre-sign transactions while users remain offline, making bitcoin layer-two solutions more accessible (Feb 12 | 6 min read).
New on Geyser: Light in the Dark: Cinema for Mental Health in Ethiopia seeks funding to create faith-based films combating youth depression through professional cinema production and free community screenings across Ethiopian neighborhoods and schools.
New on Geyser: Belgian duo Haleen seeks bitcoin crowdfunding to rebuild their off-grid music studio in Portugal, creating healing frequency music at 432Hz after kundalini awakening transformed their sound from metal to consciousness-expanding electronic compositions.
LNCURL, a proof-of-concept Lightning wallet service for AI agents, enables autonomous onboarding through a single CURL request and introduces a self-sustaining model where wallets pay hourly fees or face 'death' and placement in a graveyard.
Blue Collar Bitcoin launches Sovereign Tax, a privacy-focused bitcoin tax calculation tool that keeps transaction data encrypted on users' devices without requiring cloud services or API keys.
Neutron, a payment infrastructure platform, launches an AI Agent Payment Stack featuring Lightning wallets, stablecoin swaps, fiat off-ramps, and MCP integration for autonomous agent transactions.
Gridless Compute's Jua Kali Miner, an open-source Bitcoin mining system, enables ASIC hashboards to run directly on DC power from solar panels or batteries, eliminating reliance on traditional AC grids for off-grid mining operations.
Fedimint merges PR #8242 adding BOLT12 offer support to Gateway UI, enabling users to generate and pay Lightning Network BOLT12 offers with LDK.
DMND StratumV2 Bitcoin mining pool launches sub-account functionality enabling hosting providers and multi-client operations to manage isolated accounts with custom endpoints, payout settings, and dedicated dashboards.
PlebQR (dot) in offers a Lightning-to-UPI bridge service allowing global users to send bitcoin via Lightning Network addresses while Indian recipients instantly receive INR payments directly to their bank accounts via the UPI interface.
Nadav Kohen, cryptography researcher at Chaincode Labs, introduces Nested MuSig2, a recursive multi-signature protocol enabling secure nested Bitcoin Schnorr signatures with proven security reductions to AOMDL assumptions in the random oracle model.
Clams, a Bitcoin accounting infrastructure platform, launches V1 Beta with Rust-based core rewritten for performance, offering Lightning node support, multi-wallet integration, capital gains reporting, and enterprise features including workspaces and role-based access control.
